Is the gold price rally over?
Based on the US futures, the gold price reached its preliminary all-time high on August 6, 2020 at $ 2,069. On Monday afternoon at 2:30 p.m. the troy ounce of gold still cost 2,030 US dollars on the spot market. That corresponded to 1,726 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the gold price has increased by 33 percent, or around $ 500. In euros, the exchange rate gain was at least 27 percent during this period. Are we only seeing a short-term consolidation or has the price potential for gold and silver been exhausted for the time being?
Argument real interest rate
Amoroso justifies this with a less favorable real interest environment for gold in the future. The inflation rates have risen for a few months and that is why real interest rates have plummeted with the low interest rate level. They now expect a stabilization and no further decline. The current gold price already reflects the environment of very negative real interest rates. The main reason for the sharp rise in precious metal prices has thus been exhausted. In the case of gold calls (options), volatility and premiums have risen sharply due to the high demand for these derivatives in the course of the price rally. You sell these yourself now and realize profits.